Forecasting Online Giving

Last week a client asked for our help in budgeting for 2006. "Based on our online giving this year, we think we could bring in $X next year," she said.

Woah. This year is no benchmark year. Budgets based on a percentage increase over 2005 may be drastically off the mark, unless your disaster forecasting is better than FEMA's (come to think of it, whose isn't, but that's not the point).

If you're in the disaster business, or a regional philanthropy in the Gulf Coast, you've seen some wild swings in giving this year. If you saw big spikes in online giving due to the Tsunami, the hurricanes, and the Pakistan earthquake, please don't count on them happening again in 2006! Without a disaster of those propotions, you'll be lucky to duplicate this year's giving numbers. Your focus needs to be on cultivating those donors, reporting back on the work you've done, and getting a second gift, or perhaps starting them on a monthly giving campaign.

If you've been impacted negatively by the disaster giving to other charities, you may do better next year than this year. You'll be able to focus on your mission instead of wishing your group was in the headlines. And, there are now hundreds of thousands, if not millions of new online donors out there. Some of them also care about your organization, and will be willing to give again, if you can reach them and make your case well.

The future for online giving is bright, but don't get blinded by the spotlight and make a forecast you can't reach.